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Sowei 2025-01-12
President-elect Donald Trump’s latest threat to slap huge tariffs on countries that try to move away from the “mighty U.S. dollar” inadvertently highlights the intractable contradiction at the heart of U.S. trade and economic policy. Trump has repeatedly stated that he wants to boost U.S. competitiveness and reduce its yawning trade deficit, which he blames on other countries’ unfair economic practices. But how can he do that while simultaneously preserving the dollar’s strength and unrivaled status as the world’s reserve currency, which has for decades helped fuel American consumers’ purchasing power? His “America First” goals of expanding domestic energy production and deepening the country’s status as the world’s leading tech hub could, all else being equal, lead to an appreciating exchange rate. But this would be at odds with his other “America First” goal: boosting U.S. manufacturing. This isn’t a partisan conundrum. President Joe Biden has spent trillions of dollars over the last four years in an effort to boost U.S. manufacturing, green energy production, and other key sectors. Meanwhile, the greenback has continued to strengthen, which hasn’t made U.S. exports more attractive. Vice President Kamala Harris would be facing the same dilemma had she won last month’s presidential election. But it’s especially tricky for Trump, who has been more vocal in his criticism of countries like China, Mexico and Canada which run huge trade surpluses with the U.S., and more bombastic about his ability to fix those imbalances. A weaker dollar and lower interest rates would be two of the most obvious tools to do that. But as he made clear in his social media post on Saturday, he also wants to protect the dollar’s global hegemony and preserve its relative value. Something has to give. The U.S. has run a trade deficit for nearly 50 years, consistently sucking in more imports than it exports. Manufacturing has been declining as a share of the economy for almost as long, notably since China was admitted into the World Trade Organization in 2001. The U.S. trade deficit last year was around 3.0% of GDP, much smaller than the record 5.7% of GDP reached in the mid-2000s, but still large. And in nominal terms, which Trump focuses on more, it is an even bigger at $773 billion. The deficit is consistent with the dollar’s status as the preeminent currency in global trade, financial market trading and international foreign exchange reserves. No other currency comes close to being as dominant, even as the dollar’s share of global FX reserves has eroded in recent years. The trade deficit is offset by a surplus in the U.S. capital account, as China and others have plowed their surpluses back into U.S. bonds and stocks. If the trade deficit were reduced, so too would the capital account surplus and attendant demand for U.S. assets from abroad. All else being equal, this would put upward pressure on bond yields and interest rates. Nodding to the symbiotic relationship between the U.S. trade deficit and capital account surplus, Michael Pettis, a senior fellow at Carnegie China, pointed out on the platform X on Saturday that the U.S. cannot simultaneously cut its trade deficit and increase the global dominance of the dollar, because these impose “diametrically opposed” conditions. Rebalancing the global economy so that the U.S. runs smaller trade deficits and has a stronger manufacturing sector, while China and other large net exporters increase domestic consumption and cut their trade surpluses, would ultimately require major global FX adjustments. And U.S. consumers might not be pleased with this outcome, having benefited enormously in recent decades as the trade deficit has sucked in cheap goods from abroad, from clothes to electrical appliances and everything in between. “You are implicitly asking U.S. consumers to accept a loss of purchasing power and a willingness to pay more for imported goods in order to give support to the manufacturing sector,” says Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist at RSM. That’s a tall ask. And given the role purchasing power played in the recent election, it’s likely one the president-elect won’t actually want to make. Source: Reuters (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Paul Simao)3n means

NoneReid Hoffman, co-founder at LinkedIn and Inflection AI, shared his expectations for the incoming Trump administration in an opinion piece for the Financial Times. And while he appears hopeful that President-Elect Donald Trump could clear the way for more competition and faster innovation in the technology industry, Hoffman also expressed concerns around Trump providing certain individuals and companies with favored status in a way that could harm American innovation. One individual with his hands in several technological pies that Hoffman says could gain from Trump’s ascendance is Elon Musk , the CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI , and owner of The Boring Company, Neuralink, and X. Musk, alongside Vivek Ramaswamy, will also head up a planned advisory commission called the Department of Government Efficiency ( DOGE ). Hoffman called Musk’s ownership in xAI in particular “a serious conflict of interest.” “Using his position to favor xAI in any way, such as awarding it government contracts, encouraging federal agencies to unfairly target AI companies, or imposing new regulations that limit exports will come at the expense of U.S. technological, economic and cultural security, and competitiveness,” Hoffman wrote. Tesla, SpaceX, and Neuralink are all also in highly regulated sectors, the agencies governing which could experience layoffs or other influence from Musk in his role at DOGE. Hoffman, who backed VP Kamala Harris’s nomination and has been an outspoken critic of Trump’s presidency, also highlighted the potential benefits and drawbacks to Trump’s support of crypto. He said that “ending arbitrary enforcement policies against the cryptocurrency industry” as seen under the Biden administration could create a “more stable environment for blockchain innovation.” But he questioned whether Trump will “use his new embrace of crypto, and his regulatory authority over it, as a way to privilege a few favored coins?” Trump has his own crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, with a native token that launched in October, and is reportedly working on a new stablecoin that can serve as a stand-in for the U.S. dollar. There have also been reports this week that Trump Media, the president-elect’s social media company, is in advanced talks to acquire cryptocurrency trading platform Bakkt. Hoffman’s concerns that Trump might play favorites are not unfounded. As he noted in his piece, in Trump’s first term, the president-elect “targeted a number of iconic U.S. companies for personal and political reasons, creating constant chaos and uncertainty.” For example, Trump frequently criticized Amazon and its CEO Jeff Bezos, accusing the company of unfairly benefitting from USPS rates , which led to policies scrutinizing Amazon’s deals. Bezos, who owns The Washington Post, now appears to be amenable to Trump , and has defended his decision to withhold the newspaper’s endorsement of Harris. Musk also has a reputation for publicly challenging and criticizing competitors and people he disagrees with. The path to his acquisition of Twitter , now X, was littered with public critiques of the platform’s leadership and business model. Hoffman — who helped fund E. Jean Caroll’s rape case against Trump, criticized him as a “convicted felon and pathological liar,” and has expressed fears that the president-elect would retaliate against him and others in business — ended on an upbeat note despite his skepticism. “I very much hope that Trump succeeds wildly in enabling US entrepreneurship and innovation, increasing wages for workers and creating a country where every American is free to pursue their ambitions with dignity, purpose and a sense of belonging,” Hoffman wrote. “That’s why I will continue to do everything I can to build the next generation of companies that bring life-changing opportunities for individuals and society.”

No. 4 South Carolina women rout Purdue 99-51The Maoist threat in Odisha has witnessed a substantial decrease, with only 60-70 members of the banned organization remaining active, according to a senior BSF official. BSF IG CD Aggarwal announced that most active Maoists in Odisha come from neighboring Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, with only seven from Odisha lacking leadership roles. The BSF continues its commitment to eradicate Naxalism from Odisha by 2026, employing advanced technologies and enhancing cooperation with local police and intelligence agencies, despite persisting challenges in dense forest areas. (With inputs from agencies.)

Photography helps Navy vet see the lightWASHINGTON — Donald Trump said he can’t guarantee that his promised tariffs on key U.S. foreign trade partners won’t raise prices for American consumers and he suggested once more that some political rivals and federal officials who pursued legal cases against him should be imprisoned. The president-elect, in a wide-ranging interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” that aired Sunday, also touched on monetary policy, immigration, abortion and health care, and U.S. involvement in Ukraine, Israel and elsewhere. Trump often mixed declarative statements with caveats, at one point cautioning “things do change.” A look at some of the issues covered: Trump hems on whether trade penalties could raise prices Trump has threatened broad trade penalties, but said he didn’t believe economists’ predictions that added costs on those imported goods for American companies would lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers. He stopped short of a pledge that U.S. households won’t be paying more as they shop. “I can’t guarantee anything. I can’t guarantee tomorrow,” Trump said, seeming to open the door to accepting the reality of how import levies typically work as goods reach the retail market. That’s a different approach from Trump’s typical speeches throughout the 2024 campaign, when he framed his election as a sure way to curb inflation. In the interview, Trump defended tariffs generally, saying they are “going to make us rich.” He has pledged that, on his first day in office in January, he would impose 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada unless those countries satisfactorily stop illegal immigration and the flow of illegal drugs such as fentanyl into the United States. He also has threatened additional tariffs on China to help force that country to crack down on fentanyl production. “All I want to do is I want to have a level, fast, but fair playing field,” Trump said. Trump suggests retribution for his opponents He offered conflicting statements on how he would approach the justice system after winning election despite being convicted of 34 felonies in a New York state court and being indicted in other cases for his handling of national security secrets and efforts to overturn his 2020 loss to Democrat Joe Biden. “Honestly, they should go to jail,” Trump said of members of Congress who investigated the Capitol riot by his supporters who wanted him to remain in power. The president-elect underscored his contention that he can use the justice system against others, including special prosecutor Jack Smith, who led the case on Trump’s role in the siege on Jan. 6, 2021. Trump confirmed his plan to pardon supporters who were convicted for their roles in the riot, saying he would take that action on his first day in office. As for the idea of revenge driving potential prosecutions, Trump said: “I have the absolute right. I’m the chief law enforcement officer, you do know that. I’m the president. But I’m not interested in that.” At the same time, Trump singled out lawmakers on a special House committee who had investigated the insurrection, citing Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., and former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo. “Cheney was behind it ... so was Bennie Thompson and everybody on that committee,” Trump said. Asked specifically whether he would direct his administration to pursue cases, he said, “No,” and suggested he did not expect the FBI to quickly undertake investigations into his political enemies. But at another point, Trump said he would leave the matter up to Pam Bondi, his pick as attorney general. “I want her to do what she wants to do,” he said. Such threats, regardless of Trump’s inconsistencies, have been taken seriously enough by many top Democrats that Biden is considering issuing blanket, preemptive pardons to protect key members of his outgoing administration. Trump did seemingly back off his campaign rhetoric calling for Biden to be investigated, saying, “I’m not looking to go back into the past.” Swift action on immigration is coming Trump repeatedly mentioned his promises to seal the U.S.-Mexico border and deport millions of people who are in the U.S. illegally through a mass deportation program. “I think you have to do it,” he said. He suggested he would try to use executive action to end “birthright” citizenship under which people born in the U.S. are considered citizens — although such protections are spelled out in the ConstitutioAsked specifically about the future for people who were brought into the country illegally as children and have been shielded from deportation in recent years, Trump said, “I want to work something out,” indicating he might seek a solution with Congress. But Trump also said he does not “want to be breaking up families” of mixed legal status, “so the only way you don’t break up the family is you keep them together and you have to send them all back.” Trump commits to NATO, with conditions Long a critic of NATO members for not spending more on their own defense, Trump said he “absolutely” would remain in the alliance “if they pay their bills.” Pressed on whether he would withdraw if he were dissatisfied with allies’ commitments, Trump said he wants the U.S. treated “fairly” on trade and defense. He waffled on a NATO priority of containing Russia and President Vladimir Putin. Trump suggested Ukraine should prepare for less U.S. aid in its defense against Putin’s invasion. “Possibly. Yeah, probably. Sure,” Trump said of reducing Ukraine assistance from Washington. Separately, Trump has called for an immediate ceasefire . Asked about Putin, Trump said initially that he has not talked to the Russian leader since Election Day last month, but then hedged: “I haven’t spoken to him recently.” Trump said when pressed, adding that he did not want to “impede the negotiation.” Trump says Fed’s Powell is safe, but not Wray at FBI The president-elect said he has no intention, at least for now, of asking Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to step down before Powell’s term ends in 2028. Trump said during the campaign that presidents should have more say in Fed policy , including interest rates. Trump did not offer any job assurances for FBI Director Christopher Wray, whose term is to end in 2027. Asked about Wray, Trump said: “Well, I mean, it would sort of seem pretty obvious” that if the Senate confirms Kash Patel as his pick for FBI chief, then “he’s going to be taking somebody’s place, right? Somebody is the man that you’re talking about.” Trump is absolute about Social Security Trump promised that the government efficiency effort led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will not threaten Social Security. “We’re not touching Social Security, other than we make it more efficient,” he said. He added that “we’re not raising ages or any of that stuff.” He was not so specific about abortion or his long-promised overhaul of the Affordable Care Act. On abortion, Trump continued his inconsistencies and said he would “probably” not move to restrict access to the abortion pills that now account for a majority of pregnancy terminations, according to the Guttmacher Institute, which supports abortion rights. But pressed on whether he would commit to that position, Trump replied, “Well, I commit. I mean, are — things do — things change. I think they change.” Reprising a line from his Sept. 10 debate against Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump again said he had “concepts” of a plan to substitute for the 2010 Affordable Care Act, which he called “lousy health care.” He added a promise that any Trump version would maintain insurance protections for Americans with preexisting health conditions. He did not explain how such a design would be different from the status quo or how he could deliver on his desire for “better health care for less money.”AP News Summary at 6:20 p.m. ESTDouglas: Empty Stocking Fund in need of big finish

Brazil's Supreme Court on Wednesday started examining four cases that turn on how far social media should be regulated, and what responsibilities platforms have in cracking down on illegal content. The judicial review comes a month after the same court forced Elon Musk's X platform to obey rulings aimed at battling online disinformation. That issue has taken on heat in recent days in Brazil, with federal police accusing far-right ex-president Jair Bolsonaro and allied officials of using social media disinformation as part of a 2022 "coup" plot against Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, then the country's president-elect. The alleged plot involved using online posts to undermine public trust in the electoral system to justify Bolsonaro holding onto the presidency after Lula defeated him at the polls. Bolsonaro says he is innocent. The Supreme Court's deliberations in the cases are not expected to be concluded until sometime next year. One key point it is looking at is whether social media platforms can be fined for illegal content posted by users. Another is whether the platforms should themselves be required to monitor and remove any illegal content without a prior court order to do so. The court's rulings will become precedents that will have to be applied generally to all social media platforms operating in Brazil. Brazil -- many of whose 216 million inhabitants are heavy users of WhatsApp and Facebook -- does not have legislation in that area. Global social media networks, however, already have to abide by laws in the EU against illegal online content, under the bloc's Digital Services Act (DSA), which could guide them in terms of Brazilian compliance. One of the Brazilian Supreme Court's judges, Alexandre de Moraes, in August ordered Musk's X be blocked across the country for failing to comply with a series of court orders against online disinformation. On October 9, the platform was allowed to resume activities after paying around $5 million in fines and deactivating the accounts of several Bolsonaro supporters accused of spreading disinformation and online hate speech. The court's presiding judge, Luis Roberto Barroso, told AFP that "digital platforms... open paths to disinformation, hate, deliberate lies and conspiracy theories." He added: "In the whole democratic world there are debates about protecting free speech without permitting everyone to fall into a pit of incivility." He pointed to the European Union's DSA as a form of regulation "that seeks a point of ideal equilibrium". Brazil, in his opinion, should carve out its own regulation "with a minimum of government intervention where it comes to freedom of thought, while preventing increased criminality and inciting violence." ffb/rmb/st

COLUMBIA, Mo. (AP) — Arkansas defensive end Landon Jackson was carted off the field and taken to a hospital with a neck injury late in the first half of Saturday's game at No. 24 Missouri. Jackson appeared to injure his neck while trying to tackle Missouri running back Jamal Roberts. Medical personnel tended to Jackson for approximately 10 minutes before he was placed on a backboard and driven to a waiting ambulance. Jackson gave a thumbs-up sign as he was carted off the snow-covered field. Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek said Jackson had movement in his arms and legs but was experiencing pain in his neck. He said Jackson was taken to the hospital as a precaution. Jackson leads the Razorbacks with 9 1/2 tackles for loss and 6 1/2 sacks, and is considered a potential first-round pick in next year's NFL draft. Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here . AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football

Horse and cattle owners see shortage of veterinarians willing to take the reins of large animal careNone

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