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To be honest about the election it felt more like a dour mid winter scoring draw than any victory. Yet, after all the shouting’s done, the two main parties of the outgoing coalition still have the ball. This was a secure consolidation in tough conditions. Let’s look at some of the key numbers in order to distinguish what actually happened from of the weird party spin that conjured alternative realities from the RTÉ Exit Poll which rated Fianna Fáil at the bottom (on 19.5%) and Sinn Féin (21.1%) top. Here’s what actually happened on a national basis. In reality, the exit poll was out by beyond the margin of error on both parties. But as you can see from how the figures turn into seats, in an uber competitive political market, the difference of just three points can have a massive effect on a party’s fortunes. With only Cavan Monaghan left the three seats there are expected add two to the FF total (48) and one to Sinn Féin (39). In terms of winners and losers here’s the chart that shows what happened, first nationally: There are two clear losers here. One, most obviously on the Government side is The Green Party, which is left only with the seat of its leader. Yet it has enough local councillors to get itself into the next Seanad, and at 3% will qualify for public funding. The other is Sinn Féin. It made gains where organisation (like Waterford) was good. And it also benefited from new seats in the Dáil. But the gap between exit poll and the real poll meant early (wild) optimism tanked. The drop from 2020 is precipitous. There are three clear winners too (and maybe two halves). On the opposition benches, the Soc Dems not only broke the 3% funding barrier but took vote share from Sinn Féin and Greens. With Labour, both centre left parties now stand at 22 seats. Aontu finally won a second seat in the Dáil to sit alongside founder and former Sinn Féin TD Peadar Tóibín. They also appear to have taken vote share off Toibin’s former party, and with public funding will continue to challenge them from the right. The biggest winner though is undoubtedly Fianna Fáil. With vote share slightly down by 0.3%, they’ve opened up a 9/10 seat gap on second and third placed Sinn Féin and Fine Gael. They’ve performed well in Donegal, along the border and in the west. But both Fine Gael and Labour consolidated their vote and pushed up their seat totals. In the case of the former more than half the parliamentary party are first time TDs, whilst Labour has more than doubled its representation. And Fine Gael are now the largest party in Dublin... Fourteen years after Fianna Fáil were trounced in 2011 leaving them with just the late Brian Lenihan in Dublin they now have a TD every constituency bar Dublin Central and are in third place, and less than 4% behind Sinn Féin (down 7.7%) and Fine Gael. You can see what a long haul it has been and how the wider landscape has fragmented meaning it will be hard to conceive of a one stop shop part like the Fianna Fáil of old will ever become so dominant in Irish politics again from this chart... It’s not just that Fianna Fáil has got bigger since its crash in 2011, but almost everyone else’s got smaller relatively, including now, for the first time since it entered Dáil elections, Sinn Féin. There may also be four new groups of parties/individuals. The two centrist parties, Sinn Féin’s singular brand of left populism, the left and centre left and then perhaps an emergence of right and centre right (II and Aontu) with rural independents. That means there’s no route to power without allies. There’s are few routes to power without strategy. Micheál Martin’s strategy has been long, hard and perhaps some of his critics would say, unnecessarily slow. But that’s to underestimate the degree to which the crash broke trust in politics and politicians. The party has prospered in spite of the anti incumbency surge across the democratic world because it has maintained a course for left of centre policies on issues like housing which its current base don’t rate highly (only 17% of FF voters rated it highly). Its housing policy moved away from the market led model that’s overseen shortages and price rises that alienated the lower middle and working class families who in the past had been able to buy because of a plentiful supply public rental sector. That played to the margins FF lost in 2011 (who are still in Opposition territory). It worked because what the opposition offered was indistinguishable to the ordinary Joe and that took a lot of friction out. And perhaps made the party more transfer friendly. By not pandering to the prejudices of their respective bases both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have managed to substantially renew their parliamentary teams. They also have the money Sinn Féin were clearly eying up to upscale house building. And with that will come jobs, apprenticeships and opportunities for kids who don’t want to go on to third level education. As I never tire of saying demographics isn’t destiny , politics is. Nor is anything a linear or inevitable progression. Sinn Féin’s big opportunity was in 2020 which it didn’t see coming and so missed the chance to do what it vainly hoped to do on Friday. Something similar to quick weight loss in diets, too much growth too quickly can be only too easily lost afterwards. On the other hand, Fianna Fáil’s slow growth approach seems to be working just fine, so far. By pruning the old fantasy of FF dominance Martin has made space for further growth. There’s still far too little done, with a hell of a lot more to do.Dec 11 (Reuters) - Alphabet (GOOGL.O) , opens new tab led a Big Tech rally on Wednesday, with its stock hitting a record high after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump picked Federal Trade Commissioner Andrew Ferguson to lead the consumer protection and antitrust agency. Trump tapped Ferguson on Tuesday to replace Lina Khan, whose term as FTC chair has expired. The agency became a political flashpoint under Khan, who promoted antitrust enforcement as a check on corporate power. Several Big Tech firms such as Google-parent Alphabet, Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab and Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab faced heightened regulatory pressure from the FTC during her tenure. Ferguson was a "known dissenter" under Khan "and many people feel under his leadership the antitrust case against Alphabet will come to an end", said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. Trump and his team have been broadly critical of Big Tech companies, although some of his most prominent backers were tech executives, and it is unclear how they will approach regulatory and M&A policy for that sector. Alphabet's shares rose about 5.5% to hit a record high of $195.45. Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab jumped 4.6%, also to a record high, extending its rally since the Nov. 5 presidential election on bets the EV-maker will benefit from CEO Elon Musk's close relationship with Trump. Other tech shares also rallied. Microsoft gained 1.2% and Amazon.com (AMZN.O) , opens new tab and Meta Platforms (META.O) , opens new tab added 2% each. The latest inflation report raised expectations of an interest-rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve later this month, lifting technology stocks . Shares of Alphabet have gained over 10% in the last two days following announcements from the company about its AI agents and quantum-chip breakthrough. Google released the second generation of its Gemini artificial-intelligence model earlier on Wednesday and teased a lineup of new ways to use AI beyond chatbots, including through a pair of eyeglasses. It unveiled a new-generation chip on Monday , which it said helped overcome a key challenge in quantum computing. "What we're seeing here is Google positioning itself at the bleeding edge of a transformative technology," said Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital. "While Google sometimes has been viewed as 'behind' in AI, the recent quantum breakthrough shows us that the company knows how to construct processors," said Jamie Meyers, senior analyst at Laffer Tengler Investments. Sign up here. Reporting by Harshita Mary Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. , opens new tabNone
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