NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stock indexes rose to more records Wednesday after tech companies talked up how much of a boost they’re getting from the artificial-intelligence boom. The S&P 500 climbed 0.6% to add to what’s set to be one of its best years of the millennium. It’s the 56th time the index has hit an all-time high this year after climbing in 11 of the last 12 days . The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 308 points, or 0.7%, while the Nasdaq composite added 1.3% to its own record. Salesforce helped pull the market higher after delivering stronger revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected, though its profit fell just short. CEO Mark Benioff highlighted the company’s artificial-intelligence offering for customers, saying “the rise of autonomous AI agents is revolutionizing global labor, reshaping how industries operate and scale.” The stock price of the company, which helps businesses manage their customers, jumped 11%. Marvell Technology leaped even more after delivering better results than expected, up 23.2%. CEO Matt Murphy said the semiconductor supplier is seeing strong demand from AI and gave a forecast for profit in the upcoming quarter that topped analysts’ expectations. All the optimistic talk helped Nvidia , the company whose chips are powering much of the move into AI, rally 3.5%. It was the strongest force pushing upward on the S&P 500 by far. They helped offset an 8.9% drop for Foot Locker, which reported profit and revenue that fell short of analysts’ expectations. CEO Mary Dillon said the company is taking a more cautious view, and it cut its forecasts for sales and profit this year. Dillon pointed to how keen customers are for discounts and how soft demand has been outside of Thanksgiving week and other key selling periods. Retailers overall have offered mixed signals about how resilient U.S. shoppers can remain. Their spending has been one of the main reasons the U.S. economy has avoided a recession that earlier seemed inevitable after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to crush inflation. But shoppers are now contending with still-high prices and a slowing job market . This week’s highlight for Wall Street will be Friday’s jobs report from the U.S. government, which will show how many people employers hired and fired last month. A narrower report released Wednesday morning suggested employers in the private sector increased their payrolls by less last month than economists expected. Hiring in manufacturing was the weakest since the spring, according to Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. The report strengthened traders’ expectations that the Fed will cut its main interest rate again when it meets in two weeks. The Fed began easing its main interest rate from a two-decade high in September, hoping to offer more support for the job market. The central bank had appeared set to continue cutting rates into next year, but the election of Donald Trump has scrambled Wall Street’s expectations somewhat. Trump’s preference for higher tariffs and other policies could lead to higher inflation , which could alter the Fed’s plans . Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the central bank can afford to cut rates cautiously because inflation has slowed from its peak two years ago and the economy remains sturdy. A separate report on Wednesday said health care, finance and other businesses in the U.S. services sector are continuing to grow, but not by as much as before and not by as much as economists expected. One respondent from the construction industry told the survey from the Institute for Supply Management that the Fed’s rate cuts haven't pulled down mortgage rates as much as hoped. Plus, “the unknown effect of tariffs clouds the future.” In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.18% from 4.23% late Tuesday. On Wall Street, Campbell’s sank 6.2% for one of the S&P 500’s sharper losses despite increasing its dividend and reporting a stronger profit than analysts expected. Its revenue fell short of Wall Street’s expectations, and the National Football League’s Washington Commanders hired Campbell’s CEO Mark Clouse as its team president. Gains for airline stocks helped offset that drop after JetBlue Airways said it saw stronger bookings for travel in November and December following the presidential election. It also said it’s benefiting from lower fuel prices, as well as lower costs due to improved on-time performance. JetBlue jumped 8.3%, while Southwest Airlines climbed 3.5%. All told, the S&P 500 rose 36.61 points to 6,086.49. The Dow climbed 308.51 to 45,014.04, and the Nasdaq composite rallied 254.21 to 19,735.12. In stock markets abroad, South Korea’s Kospi sank 1.4% following a night full of drama in Seoul. President Yoon Suk Yeol was facing possible impeachment after he suddenly declared martial law on Tuesday night, prompting troops to surround the parliament. He revoked the martial law declaration six hours later. In the crypto market , bitcoin climbed near $99,000 after Trump said he would nominate Paul Atkins , a cryptocurrency advocate, to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission. AP Writers Matt Ott and Zimo Zhong contributed.
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CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (AP) — Reniya Kelly had 18 points and six assists, Maria Gakdeng added 16 points and nine rebounds, and No. 16 North Carolina beat 14th-ranked Kentucky 72-53 on Thursday night in the SEC/ACC Challenge. North Carolina opened the game on a 14-4 run, capped by Alyssa Ustby’s fifth 3-pointer of the season. The Tar Heels led 36-25 at halftime after holding the Wildcats to 36% shooting. Javascript is required for you to be able to read premium content. Please enable it in your browser settings. Get updates and player profiles ahead of Friday's high school games, plus a recap Saturday with stories, photos, video Frequency: Seasonal Twice a week
Franklin financial SVP Karen Carmack reports stock purchaseNEW YORK (AP) — A Brooklyn real estate magnate accused of working with a Turkish government official to funnel illegal campaign contributions to New York City Mayor Eric Adams plans to plead guilty to a conspiracy charge tied to the scheme, federal prosecutors said Monday. Erden Arkan, the owner of a real estate construction firm, was one of several individuals implicated in the sprawling corruption indictment brought against Adams in October. He would be the first to plead guilty in a public proceeding. In court papers, prosecutors said Arkan planned to plead guilty to a charge of conspiracy to commit wire fraud by collecting campaign contributions for Adams that were made under the name of someone other than the true contributor. Adams then used those funds to fraudulently obtain public funding under the city’s matching funds program, which provides a generous match for small-dollar donations, prosecutors allege. A lawyer for Arkan did not immediately respond to a request for comment. An attorney for Adams, Alex Spiro, said in an emailed statement that the decision would have "no bearing on the Mayor’s case whatsoever.” “We know from the government’s own interviews that Mr. Arkan repeatedly said that Mayor Adams had no knowledge of his actions," Spiro said. A well-known member of New York’s Turkish community, Arkan is a co-owner of KSK, a Brooklyn-based construction firm specializing in luxury condominiums. His firm’s ties to Adams emerged in November 2023, as investigators searched his residence, along with the home of Adams’ chief fundraiser and his liaison to the Turkish community. Adams was subsequently charged with accepting bribes in the form of luxury travel benefits and illegal campaign contributions from a Turkish official and other foreign nationals hoping to buy his influence for their benefit. He has pleaded not guilty and vowed to remain in office as he fights the charges. The indictment details an April 2021 dinner organized by the Turkish official in which Adams personally solicited illegal campaign contributions from Arkan — identified in court papers only as “Businessman-5.” The following month, Arkan hosted a fundraiser at KSK’s headquarters for Adams in which 11 of his employees donated between $1,200 and $1,500 to the campaign. Each was reimbursed by the construction firm, prosecutors allege, making the contributions illegal straw donations. Arkan later confirmed to the FBI that he had spoken to the Turkish official about the fundraiser. He initially denied reimbursing his employees, prosecutors said. As he sought to recruit others to raise money for Adams, Arkan appeared to acknowledge misgivings about the fundraising scheme, telling prospective donors in New York's Turkish community that it “may feel like swimming against the current but unfortunately this is how things work in this country,” according to the indictment. As Adams gears up for an April trial, he has pledged to fight the case “with every ounce of my strength and my spirit." But his administration has faced overlapping scandals and investigations, leading to the resignations of his police commissioner , schools chancellor , multiple deputy mayors and his director of Asian affairs . His former buildings commissioner was also charged in a separate bribery conspiracy case involving real estate officials last year. Last week, Adams' former top advisor and close confidante, Ingrid Lewis-Martin, was charged by state prosecutors for allegedly accepting bribes from two real estate developers seeking to speed the process of construction approvals. She has pleaded not guilty. Jake Offenhartz And Larry Neumeister, The Associated Press
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Is a liberal arts degree useless if you want to succeed in life? Not at all.
Industrial Automation Solutions: Why Omchele Stands Out Among the Best 12-23-2024 09:32 PM CET | Business, Economy, Finances, Banking & Insurance Press release from: ABNewswire Omchele, a global leader in industrial automation with 37 years of experience, offers over 3,000 customizable products, including sensors, power supplies, and pneumatic systems. Known for quality, precision, and cost-effective solutions, Omchele helps bus Omchele, a global leader in industrial automation with 37 years of experience, offers over 3,000 customizable products, including sensors, power supplies, and pneumatic systems. Known for quality, precision, and cost-effective solutions, Omchele helps businesses optimize efficiency and reduce costs. Recommendation: ***** To B or C: B2B Main Markets: Primarily Belt and Road countries (e.g., Russia, Iran, Turkey, India), with strategic plans to expand into Europe, North America, and South America for a global presence. Introducing Omchele: Leaders in Automation Omchele, an industrial automation company, was founded in 1986 and has become a world leader in its industry over the course of 37 years of experience. Resting on a solid base of automation products that includes switching power supplies, proximity sensors and photoelectric sensors and so on. This advancement helped boost Omchele's offerings for clients by creating its sub-brand, Hebai-Omch, which focuses on specific pneumatic line products. Innovative changes through adapting to how the industry business works allows Omchele to maintain a stable reputation of their input. Now, customers are offered a decent amount of over 3,000 types of models, over 30 categories and over 200 series which cuts across almost all the manufacturing inputs. Omchele is committed to providing cost efficient and reliable solutions that caters for global desires in our effort to bolster industrialisation. Owning 86 branches in different geographic locations with 72,000 different businesses paintings a good picture of Omchele as a reputable leader in the automation industry. Over two factories, companies annualy assemble up to 20 million units giving productions a good place. Superior Customization Tailored to Your Needs Omchele is recognized for the exceptional product design in a given application since the firm's products provide an unparalleled level of customization. Customizability features are found in different products such as: - Switching Power Supplies: clients are able to customize quite extensive including the power range and input voltage ranges in order to optimize different electrical mechanisms. - Proximity Sensors: Industrial limits may call for output types, sensing ranges, and their housings, which can all be supplied by clients. - Pneumatic cylinders: Material types, stroke lengths, and bore diameters are all available to clients so as to site specific machinery and different working conditions. - FRL Units: Customizable to meet your specific needs, including combining filtration, regulation, and lubrication functions, or adding accessories based on pressure range, filtration precision, and interface size to optimize system performance. Omchele also has the advantage of secondary processing, which includes CNC machining, painting, and other various forms of post-processing. Such services help the clients enhance the attractiveness of their items and gain a competitive edge. Omchele's service builds on clients needs during the customisation process. The creation of samples for approval is the first step of mass production implementation to help ensure that the finished product meets the client's specifications. In this way, Omchele fills in the market gaps which cut across different industries that have specific manufacturing and operating conditions. Due to its focus on precision engineering and flexibility to target particular objectives, Omchele has emerged to be a favored partner for companies looking for individualized automation products. This unique strength in customisation in contrast to competitors provides them a definite competitive advantage, and makes them suitable for firms with complicated automation needs. Robust Production Capacity and Industry Expertise The quality and experience Omchele possesses speaks volumes about the factories and production capabilities they have. Omchele operates through two factories that have an area of approximately 8,000m2. The modern design of the plants ensures that Omchele can handle both tasks efficiently. With a monthly production capacity of 500,000 units, the company manufactures over 20 million products annually. This gives the company the advantage to make scale as well as make prompt production to all its customers. The following are some important aspects of the production system of Omchele: - Seven Latest Models of Production Lines: Automatic pick and place system, glue dispensing system, wire cut and mostly testing machines which are most sophisticated are integrated systems in this line. - Next day shipping: Omchele Complete Control System in Supply Chain Guarantees Next Day Delivery After Order Placed. Other than the services highlighted above, Omchele also offers OEM Manufacturing Services whereby the company targets its business internationally seeking for custom made aftermarket components. This enables companies to widen their market scope in the sense that they can provide specific services to satisfy different market needs. Thanks to Omchele's long experience and advanced technology, precision, and quality of our products are guaranteed. On the other hand, orders regardless of its size are well suited for the company as they are capable of maintaining standards and meeting targets, thereby being an exceptional business partner. Therefore if standard products are required, or customized ones are sought after, then Omchele is the place because they offer quick service . Uncompromising Product Quality and Certifications At Omchele, the integrity of quality bears no compromise. Each product goes through a comprehensive quality assurance process that enhances the international standards and customer expectations. Supporting Omchele's philosophy are certifications such as CCC and CE, and IEC and GB/T14048.10 standards. The quality control measures take into account: - Thorough Examination: All the material used is cut down to batch levels which enables the discarding of all inferior lot components. - During Manufacturing Tests: Good practices of the requisite testing are retained where competent inspectors examine every stage of the manufacture. - Environmental and Durability Tests: Before it is ready for delivery, a series of performance tests within aging and extreme benchmarking conditions is done ensuring that practical use is realized after delivery. Furthermore, Omchele has made developments in technologies that are patented and enable greater performance. For example, its photoelectric sensors and proximity switches has improved a lot and are now compatible with major brands such as Omron, SICK, and Autonics. As a result of these developments, Omchele products qualify to be termed as substitutes for more expensive products yet retaining the desired quality . With these quality standards, Omchele's name has become a reference point when reliability and performance is mentioned as it is an innovator in industrial automation. Flexible and Customer-Focused Service Approach The customer service of Omchele is intended to interlink with the client embarrass-free and in a friendly manner. The culturally flexible and clientele outlook of the company encompasses the following: - Product Recommendations: Omchele is the best place for those customers who present competitor models since the company provides proper models which are either higher or equivalent at a reasonable price. - Product Search Simplification: Clients are able to find the required products by means of item codes, product names, product numbers, technical drawings or samples in the quickest and most convenient manner for them. - Customization Workflow: This process commences with creation of sample prototypes which after approval are taken as the standard benchmark for mass production thus ensuring accuracy and client satisfaction. - 24/7 Prompt Support: Omchele provides the services any time and all the time, attending to queries and offering technical assistance at any hour. Being in the presence of 86 branches in various countries and already well-established distribution networks , Omchele is able to guarantee all the local and international clients that all of their concerns will be dealt with promptly. The passion to offering competent and flexible customer support and service adds to the reputation of the company common in providing industrial automation partnership. Industry-Wide Trusted Automation Solutions Omchele's products find applications in a wide category of industries including automation, automation Line,medical,etc. Their automation solutions integrate well with leading international brands like Omron, SICK, and SMC, and are known for their flexibility. Some of the more popular uses of Omchele's products are: - Switching Power Supplies: Expansive use in industrial automation, electronics sector, medical power solutions, and telecommunications. They provide efficient power conversion, reduced energy consumption, and reliable performance. - Proximity Sensors: Widely used in industrial automation, robotics navigation, equipment limits, and automated gate systems to ensure precise and efficient operations. - Photoelectric Sensors: Widely used in industrial automation, material handling, packaging industry, and logistics to provide precise detection, improve efficiency, and enhance automation processes. - Pneumatic Cylinders: Commonly used in automation systems and production, the automotive industry, the food and beverage industry, and packaging machinery to provide reliable motion control, enhance efficiency, and support precise operations in various industrial processes. - FRL Units: Essential in manufacturing, automation, and process control to filter, regulate, and lubricate air, ensuring smooth and efficient operation of pneumatic systems. It is apparent from Omchele's strategy and implementation capabilities that their target customers are firms which are using or planning to use premium brands and products thus ensuring a smooth transition. The solutions are helpful since they increase the operational efficiency of the firm while saving on costs, allowing firms to make profits irrespective of the industry in which they operate. Partner with Omchele: Your Trusted Automation Expert * Company Name: Omchele * Email: omchele@omchele.com [mailto:omchele@omchele.com] * Phone: 0086-577-62716889 * Website: www.omchele.com [ https://www.omchele.com/ ] Media Contact Company Name: Omchele Email:Send Email [ https://www.abnewswire.com/email_contact_us.php?pr=industrial-automation-solutions-why-omchele-stands-out-among-the-best ] Phone: 0086-13362722556 Address:Qiligang Second Industrial Zone, Liushi Town City: Yueqing State: Zhejiang Province Country: China Website: http://omchele.com This release was published on openPR.
The Saskatchewan Roughriders acquired the rights to veteran quarterback Jake Maier from the Calgary Stampeders on Monday for a 2025 eighth-round draft pick. The deal gives Saskatchewan a window to negotiate exclusively with Maier, who's slated to become a free agent Feb. 11. Maier started 45 of 65 games over four seasons with Calgary (2021-24). The six-foot, 200-pound Maier completed 1,022 of 1,497 passes for 11,685 yards with 60 touchdowns and 39 interceptions. He also rushed 60 times for 232 yards and five touchdowns. Maier, 27, completed 357 of 494 passes for 3,841 yards with 22 TDs and 14 interceptions last season, one which saw Calgary (5-12) miss the CFL playoffs for the first time since 2004. The Stampeders acquired veteran Vernon Adams Jr. from the B.C. Lions last month. Earlier this month, Saskatchewan signed veteran starter Trevor Harris to a one-year contract extension. Also on Monday, Calgary announced it signed Canadian offensive lineman Zack Williams to a two-year contract extension. The Winnipeg native was scheduled to become a free agent in February. Calgary selected the six-foot-five, 306-pound Williams in the third round of the 2019 CFL draft. The former Manitoba Bison has appeared in 66 regular-season games with the Stampeders but since 2021 has started 60 of 61 contests. -- This report by The Canadian Press was first published on Dec. 23, 2024.
Authored by David B. Collum, Betty R. Miller Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology - Cornell University (Email: dbc6@cornell.edu , Twitter: @DavidBCollum), Dave Collum’s annual Year in Review covers a wide range of topics including finance, geopolitics, conspiracy theories, healthcare, energy, and cultural issues, with a focus on skepticism towards mainstream narratives and the potential for significant societal and economic shifts. Every year, David Collum writes a detailed “Year in Review” synopsis ( 2023 , 2022 , 2021 , 2020 , 2019 , 2018 ) full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year’s is no exception, with Dave striking again in his usually poignant and delightfully acerbic way. Click here for a PDF version of this report! Part 1 Part 2 (Coming Later This Week) Part 3 (Coming in January of 2025) I have the advantage of having found out how hard it is to get to really know something. ~ Richard Feynman What is a woman? ~ Matt Walsh We have reached crisis levels of doubt. It is The Age of Unenlightenment or what Brett Weinstein calls the Cartesian Dark Ages. ref 1 NSA analyst and radical Islam expert Stephen Coughlin says he no longer knows who is calling the shots. ref 2 How do you know what is a fact? AI-generated images and videos have reached near-perfection. The pathological liars in the mainstream media spew agitprop for the pathological liars inside the beltway, all backed by the pathological liars of the Deep State running the fact-check programs. I use the Deep State phrase first introduced by Berkeley scholar Peter Dale Scott as a catch all to avoid wading through all the possible three- and four-letter agencies domiciled in multiple countries that might be the culprit du jour. A more pejorative and colloquial synonym, “The Blob”, was coined by Obama but has only recently begun trending. If this is all new to you, check out Mike Benz on the Joe Rogan Experience for a crash course (#2237). ref 3 My frustration levels soar when I try to provide what I believe is an uncomfortable truth and my victim responds, “I Googled it, and you are wrong.” Oh for fuck’s sake: how many Deep-State-sponsored fact-checkers told you that? It feels like we are suffering from a non-kinetic assault from somebody using Sun Tsu’s Three Warfares Doctrine: psychological warfare, media warfare, and legal warfare. ref 4 I have no idea where this is coming from, but I have ground my brain to mush trying to understand why so many of our leaders show no evidence of foundational beliefs in the American Experiment. Paul Harvey nailed it in his 1965 diatribe, “If I Were the Devil.” ref 5 Take the three minutes to listen. When finished, ask what Paul would add to a 2024 revision. Walter Kirn: I feel that my information gathering system is broken. Matt Taibbi: Yup. I feel the same way. ref 6 There are days in which I yearn for the return of the era of frontier justice. You couldn’t afford to be a dickweed in the olden days because it was too easy for someone to lay waste to you when nobody was looking. Throughout this document you will be introduced to people and ideas that make you wish some form of justice would return. I have a solution. We try to use the justice system under the new administration, but if that fails, we round up some of the most serious miscreants—I’m thinking Fauci et al. , a few Soros-funded prosecutors in the Department of Justice, and maybe even some of those iatrogenic doctors irreversibly damaging kids—and give them an all-expense paid trip—a three-hour tour—to the tropical paradise called “Snake Island.” Snake Island is a biological anomaly. It is teaming with the most venomous snakes in the world—an estimated 5 snakes per square meter. They feed on shorebirds that must be killed instantly. It is against international law to go there, which strikes me as government overreach. Let’s do a dump-and-run of these cretins: “We’ll be back in a couple hours, gents.” Conspiracy Theory. Every year I denounce people who shy away from conspiracy theories. When you find yourself saying, “I am not a conspiracy theorist but...” you just revealed that you are one. Embrace the label. Men and women of wealth and power conspire. If you disagree, I am baffled that you made it this far through this document. Buckle up because it is gonna get much worse. Michael Shermer, a professional debunker of conspiracy theories, included in his book Conspiracy a series of metrics somebody came up with to determine whether a theory is weak or strong. Michael morphed it into a metric of how nuts you are. He should know because he is a professional! He probably works for the See Eye Ay. As an aside, the word “debunk” is inherently flawed because it implicitly presumes the conclusion that something is wrong, and then you set out to prove it. I read and write to see where it takes me. It might show my suspicion I was right or wrong, but the theories I choose to examine—the rabbit holes I go down—are pre-determined to be worthy of further study. Occasionally, I am told to “stay in your lane.” I try to resist my favorite response—“You sack of shit”—which happens to be exactly the phrase I use when somebody doesn’t use their blinker. Then I calmly point out that nothing important is accomplished by people worried about staying in their lane. Until you’re ready to look foolish, you’ll never have the possibility of being great. ~ Cher Let’s see how you do on the Collum Conspiracy Test (CCT) to obtain your CCT score (CCTS). Read the 30 declarative statements listed below that are in conflict with standard narratives. Keep score on a Post-it by giving yourself: I’ll give you my CCTS when you are done. Now for the quiz... If you got a perfect CCTS of either zero or 60, get professional help. You have an unstable personality. A CCTS above 50 suggests you only spotted the explicit sanity checks; you are a loon but not necessarily at risk of harm to yourself or others. A score of 40–49 tags you as a World-class rabbit chaser. A CCTS of 20–39 places you in the Zerohedge bell curve. Below 20 means you are not a die-hard conspiracy theorist but occasionally spot oddities. I hasten to add that, if you think the world is that straightforward, the Joe Rogan–Marc Andreessen podcast (#2234) ref 7 and Rogan-Mike Benz mind bender ref 8 combo platter will adjust your attitude. As promised, I scored 40; exactly which declarations scored me points is my business, although this Year in Review and previous Year in Reviews ref 9 , 10 , 11 offer some insights. Also, my scale is conservative... I did a curious experiment using Twitter’s “Grok” AI product. The result was rather humorous and serves a dual purpose as a stylistic biographical sketch and bolus for my insatiable narcissism. This is unedited. No phrases like “insufferable douche bag” were deleted: Hey Grok: Describe the general theme of posts on Twitter by @DavidBCollum Grok: Ah, @DavidBCollum, a character on Twitter, or should I say, X, whose posts could be described as a cocktail of wit, skepticism, and a dash of financial insight, all served with a side of humor. Here’s the general theme of his posts: In essence, @DavidBCollum’s X posts are a blend of financial wisdom, cultural critique, personal life, and a good dose of humor, all served with a side of skepticism towards the mainstream narrative. If Twitter were a bar, he’d be the bartender who knows all the good stories, tells them with flair, and makes you question your drink’s price. One of my Twitter buddies, @BenjaminWHart, has been calling me Andy Rooney for years now. I should just declare victory, type QED, quit while I’m ahead, and get a real life. This is the greatest thing I have ever seen that didn’t include female nudity of some kind. ~ John Ziegler, journalist This 2024 Year in Review, also called the Urine Review by my wife or YIR for short, comes in three parts. Bob Moriarty: When are you going to release part three? We wait patiently. Me: Not clear, but I am writing. It is a monumentally complex task compared to the other chapters. Moriarty: I hate it when you whine. Warning: I have provided an overview and implications of the election, but you will be shocked and disappointed (or not) at how little I dug into the nearly 200 pages of notes I had collected. Kilograms of ATP got fried and countless hours of my life were squandered trying to understand Biden and then Harris. And then—*poof*—on November 5th these two DNC Trojan Whores were both gone. We became unburdened by what could have been. 11/5 will live in infamy as the DNC’s 9/11. But all those quotes and anecdotes underscoring the total absurdity of the election seem irrelevant now. I am confident, however, that we collectively dodged a bullet by sending these two sociopaths to the political light. My wife created this for me in 2016... Of course, Trump’s victory was a bipartisan surprise as the polls convinced the Left that Kamala was a legitimate contender while those of us on the Right believed The Blob would find a way to stop Trump at any cost. The election was disruptive on so many levels, and has left us with a geopolitical landscape smothered by a pea-soup fog. I am confident that the Trump Presidency 2.0 will have little connection to the 1.0 release. I am optimistic because the system is broken and needs to be razed and rebuilt. The team he is assembling, for better or worse, includes some young brawlers with a sense of purpose gained from locking horns with the system. It is personal for many of them. Thus, the razing part looks like a lock whereas the reconstruction will be a far trickier task. As to the apparent non-trivial number of apparent losers being hired, I urge people to assume that they were vetted by The Donald’s inner circle and fit nicely in whatever is his plan. Doubtless, Trump et al. will generate plenty of material for a 2025 Urine Review. Source Material. You are born into the last chapter of a whodunnit mystery. If you wish to follow the thread you must read the preceding chapters. My efforts to do so are often reflected in the books I read compiled in the “Books” chapter (Part 2). I choose them carefully because my time is precious. They are invariably from the non-fiction shelf, although I often wonder if they have been shelved wrong. Jonathan Turley’s The Indispensable Right , for example, scrutinizes the battles for free speech in America at the Supreme Court level. It is scholarly and riveting, which are two words that are usually juxtaposed. Jonathan forces you to view free speech through a different lens. I write so that knowledge of these important matters may not fade away like the fleeting memories of a passing dream. ~ Thomas Hooker, 1586-1647, source vague I have come to realize that history is a highly fluid series of opinions that are prone to revision. By example, the section entitled, “A Revisionist History of WWII and FDR” is about a journey through a half dozen books that blindsided me. I gave a 20-minute talk on that topic at the New Orleans Investment Conference. ref 12 , 13 Yup. The revised history of WWII and FDR in 20 minutes. I also love ZeroHedge. Strap on your bullshit filter, but ZeroHedge is often at the vanguard of breaking stories. Twitter has become the other go-to place for the global events of the day. Love him or hate him, Elon saved the day by buying Twitter for the low, low price of $44 billion and then firing 90% of its employees who were contra-functional. Many are now working for FEMA where special skills are neither needed nor encouraged. Elon also brought in a number of new functions including its AI chatbot, Grok, and another AI-based editorial function in which a Tweet can be automatically clarified or revised based on follow up comments. I should add that this document was created without AI except when explicitly mentioned. Twitter was the only place to keep track of the rising stardom of Catturd and Brendan Dilley, legendary memers, and Hailey Welch, known by her boyfriends and now the world as Hawk Tuah Girl. Haliey is more than just a hot chick from the sticks; she pulled off a pump and dump on a new crypto. ref 14 That is how you “Hawk Tuah!” Twitter was also the only place to get the unabridged story of the assassination of Peanut the Squirrel by the New York State’s Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC), first reported on November 1. The head of the DEC had to go into hiding. ref 15 The memes—oh those fabulous Twitter memes—smothered the election posts for 24 hours. 11/1 is the 9/11 of 2024. No squirrel has done more to underscore the evils and overreach of government since Rocky the Flying Squirrel battled the Rooskies. You can’t help but notice that the political right dominates the meme world, which turns out to be of consequence. My theory is the left has no sense of humor. Twitter also serves as my LinkedIn, providing extraordinary digital networks and resources, but it can also break your spirit... Or get a little nasty at times... That Dave Collum guy. I think he is the greatest. I think he is smart as fuck. I enjoy reading his stuff. I enjoy reading his letter. I enjoy listening to him. But I don’t agree with everything he says. I agree with maybe half of it. But he is entitled to his point of view, and I’m entitled to mine, but it’s guys like that that make you think. ref 16 ~ Mark Cohodes (@AlderLaneEggs) This nugget of sociobiology serves as a reminder that this is my Year in Review, not yours. I am offering to share it at fair market value—no cost. You’re welcome. Don’t I risk losing readers? Nope. You’re it. Creating this review forces me to organize 500–700 pages of notes, quotes, and jokes before they go down the memory hole never again to see the light of day. This section is all me—my 2024 Dear Diary entry. I am often asked some variant of, “How do you still work at Cornell with those ideas?” My first answer is that Cornell University is a great institution that has a faction of nutjobs on the faculty. This question has, however, become more than rhetorical on occasion. In 2020 I got my ass whooped by a cancellation because of a statement on social media that got me publicly denounced in an open letter by the former President. The heinous crime: I supported the police in a Tweet. Oh the humanity! I still have a little scar tissue from sleeping with loaded rifles and steak knives strategically placed around the house. (I am not joking.) Occasionally somebody will denounce me on Twitter and tag Cornell (@Cornell). Trying to undermine somebody’s livelihood because you are offended is sinister. You certainly have the right to be offended, but you don’t have the right to never be offended. I respond to such subtle jabs by leaving @Cornell in the thread and then “bitch slapping” the asshat. It is better than hunting them down like a mad dog and “beating them with a bag of oranges”, which is my natural instinct. ( 23andMe DNA traced me back to an inbred tribe in the Neander Valley.) We have an enormous number of expensively schooled imbeciles who are badly educated at great expense. ~ George Will The younger generation is getting harder to understand and very easy to offend. I feel like Jane Fookin’ Goodall on her first day. They have no sense of humor because every joke has an edge—a butt of the joke—and they don’t think that is fair. I got into a kerfuffle with my class on day one by dropping too many jokes that would have been innocuous in smaller doses, but it largely subsided when they realized that I care about them and that many of my stories and anecdotes provide serious career and life lessons, albeit deeply embedded in my Tourettes-like outbursts. I talk to them about the highly distracting digital world that must be resisted. If you have been following social psychologist Jonathan Haidt’s work such as Coddling the American Mind or his latest, The Anxious Generation , you realize it is not their fault: smart phones and social media have turned their brains into tapioca pudding. You might as well park them in front of a one-armed bandit in Las Vegas for 15 hours a day. Now imagine a 12-year-old boy with ritalin coursing through his veins deep-diving Pornhub. Would that kid ever study? Would he ever leave his room? If he somehow managed to get a date—the stats showing a collapse of teen dating are horrifying—would you want your daughter to beta test his new-fangled skills? As parents, do not underestimate the severity of this problem. OK. I got off topic again. I tend to do that. Overall, my year was uneventful, with most of it fitting neatly in the sections on “Investing” and “Healthcare”. I wrapped up my research program this year after a 45-year streak of pretty credible success. The final chapter was my call: I burnt the ships in the harbor by not submitting grant renewals. Credentialed experts and The ScienceTM say that, in addition to the void left by less responsibility, your serotonin and dopamine levels drop, which is offset by being too old to give a fuck. I can feel it. Here is a funny story. Cornell suffered a period of tremendous turbulence arising from Palestinian protests. One of my colleagues in the humanities in a moment of minimal clarity noted that he was “exhilarated” by Hamas’s slaughter of Israelis on October 7th, 2023. He seems to be light on the humanity part. This period of rampant free speech cost Cornell and Universities across the nation a ton of shekels as Jewish bazillionaires started disowning them. Imagine, however, if a WWII veteran came back to Cornell in 1969; it would have looked way worse. If you were donating to your alma mater thinking its faculty was a pillar of mental stability, that one’s on you. But the chaos just wouldn’t subside, so one night I gripped and ripped a tweet: I got a call from my brother-in-law who happens to be a trustee and knows everybody . He opens the convo by reciting part of that tweet. The dialog ensued: Me: “How the hell did you see that?” Brother-in-law: “My boss sent it to me.” Me: “Your wife? How did she see it?” Brother-in-law: “My other boss.” Me: “You are self employed. You don’t have a boss.” Brother-in-law: “The Chairman of the Board of Trustees.” As the story goes, the Chairman cold-called him and asked if he by chance knew this guy Collum. Apparently, a faculty member who isn’t whining like a little punk-assed bitch about being oppressed is a trustee-level moment. “Yes. He is my brother-in-law.” Laughter ensued. Enjoy every sandwich. ~ Warren Zevon on his deathbed He who frames the question wins the debate. ~ Randall Terry This year, I did a Zerohedge Debate organized by Liam Cosgrove of The Grayzone and moderated by Bill Fleckenstein. Steve Keen asserted mankind would largely end by 2050—that is not one of my snarky fake claims—whereas I dismissively called it a gigantic grift to monetize the sun. ref 1 , 2 My intellectual high-water mark was the allusion to AI as “squeegeeing drippings from the floor of the internet.” My now-annual trip to the House of the Rising Sun for Brien Lundin’s New Orleans Investment Conference is always a blast where I meet up with old friends, press the flesh with digital friends, and make new friends. Brien dug long and hard to eventually find the bottom of the barrel (me). You can spot some serious contemporary legends. You think that is cool? Take a look at past participants... I averaged one podcast per week (>70 year-to-date). In one with Mike Farris and Diana West on her studies of WWII (see the section “Revised History of WWII and FDR”), Diana noted that her twice-weekly appearances on The Lou Dobbs Show to discuss current events prevented her from thinking deeply or writing seriously. That captured what I was experiencing. Podcasts do, however, serve a purpose much the way gigs at comedy clubs help comedians test drive their ideas. My list of podcasts below is for archival purposes. Mike Farris takes the gold for most invites. Nick Bryant is the scholar on pedophile networks. His chat was important to my studies of child trafficking (Part 3) and in expanding my network of experts and confidants. Tommy Carrigan’s four-way Rumbles in the Jungle with Tom Luongo and Jim Kunstler are always raucous. My interview with Michelle Mikori set the click-count record this year, but the comments section suggests the viewers would have enjoyed it without the audio on. A couple of sites offer bot-driven compilations, including one that professes to rate them. ref 3 , 4 I like the freedom of podcasting. With podcasting, you can really mess around with the form and the format. You can do as much time as you like without having to pause for commercials. ~ Adam Carolla Here is a list of podcasts and links for 2024: Collum could narrate a proctology exam & make it interesting. ~ Vincent J. Curtis (@VincentJCurtis1) I once live-tweeted a cystoscopy: “It burns! It burns!” I will rise to meet Vincent’s challenge. Last year I had a 1.5 inch bladder stone removed by Dr. Darth Vader with his light saber. He inflicted superficial damage that forced him to re-insert the catheter and leave it for a week. Why an entire week? Because he works on Wednesdays. I was not happy about that. This year, my prostate, which was very large due to old age in manly sort of way I guess, was removed by a surgeon named Dr. Weiner. The non-statistical probability of choosing a career that reflects your name is called “nominative determinism”, ref 1 which suggests you should steer clear of Doctors named Butcher, Hack, or Ripper. It is not a perfect rule: Dr. Richard Titball is not a gender reassignment surgeon but rather a professor of biochemistry. ref 2 His students must be ruthless as evidenced by my irresistible urge to make him the “butt” of my joke. You will not hear this often, but I highly recommend the procedure. I went from two-minute dribbles with countless sleep interruptions to blowing out 14 ounces in 4–5 seconds in a 6–8 foot arc. (I should add that those were separate measurements; I am not that talented...yet.) Livin’ the dream. But let me give you old farts a little advice. For the first couple of post-op urinations, sit your ass down unless you wish to see a replay of the Saint Valentine’s Day Massacre. It was a ten-minute cleanup of the floor and walls. When I was a kid, I wanted to be older. This is not what I expected. The only room I can enter and remember why I went there is the bathroom. Over-nourishment makes me hold my breath while I tie my shoes. I can no longer get off the floor without grunting. I am dotting my ‘t’s and crossing my ‘I’s. As my hearing gets worse, the blinker on my car runs unabated. I repeat: old age is not for pussies. The decay of our healthcare system continues. For the first time in US history, life expectancy is dropping. Last year I took a cue from Gretchen Morgenson’s and Josh Rosner’s These are the Plunderers ref 3 and wailed on the swath of destruction to the healthcare system by the private equity Borg. ref 4 Monetary policy incentivizes private equity strip-mining of companies by making capital too cheap. When you buy up hospitals, sell off their assets, and sell the shells to dumb money with a 47% probability of bankruptcy down the road, you are a menace to society. Healthcare is now almost completely corporatized, which means that there is a big middleman who wants the Big Vig. Doctors must act in the corporate interests ref 5 by upselling costly tests and treatments. I am not breaking any HIPAA rules: this is my chart. Are they upselling me? The growing number of doctors in the US has not kept up with the demand as the aging boomers increasingly burden the system. It remains a challenge to attract doctors to less profitable subdisciplines and practices in rural settings. Ken Langone endowed NYU Medical School several years ago, making it free and the most desirable med school in the country. As the movement toward endowed tuitions has spread to other schools, the stated logic is that graduates can serve the public better if they are debt free. ref 6 Alas, tuition benefits have not achieved their stated goals but have made being a doctor even more profitable. Meanwhile, the wait time to get an appointment has increased 24% in 20 years ref 7 (much worse from personal experience), which starts looking serious when you have a big, bloody turbocancer lesion hanging off your face. Firing doctors for refusing to vaccinate was about as helpful as defunding the police. ref 8 The soft corruption infecting the healthcare system over the decades undercuts the quality of patient care. The CDC set up a not-for-profit organization ref 9 to funnel hundreds of millions of dollars from pharma to put a chokehold on healthcare. ref 10 I highly recommend The Real Anthony Fauci by Robert F. Kennedy; ref 11 your blood will boil. For a less biased treatment, and I say less biased because Kennedy hates Tony Fauci, try Sickening by Harvard’s John Abramson in which he describes his role in the scandal in which Vioxx caused 60,000 deaths ref 12 as well as other disasters emanating from the highly conflicted clinical trial-industrial complex. ref 13 A recent study found that clinical trials paid for by pharma showed 50 percent higher drug efficacies than those funded independently. ref 14 This so-called ”sponsorship effect” worked so well with the bond rating agencies leading up to the Great Recession. This year I added Sharyl Attkisson’s Follow the Science to my reading list. She brilliantly describes 25-year career at CBS writing about science and the pharmaceutical industry. Her journey has led to her deep-seated revulsion of the Pharma Blob. ref 15 I also forced myself through The Pfizer Papers , ref 16 which is more of a reference book than a reading book. An army of 3200 volunteer doctors and scientists mowed through gazillions of documents pried loose from Pfizer by a FOIA request. I elaborate in the section entitled “Covid-19 and the Vaccine.” Plot spoiler: Pfizer knew from the very start that the vaccine was wreaking havoc. I would suggest that the whole imposing edifice of modern medicine, for all its breathtaking successes is, like the celebrated Tower of Pisa—slightly off balance. ref 17 ~ King Charles (no kidding) In my consultations with colleagues across academia, I sense a widely held belief that the quality of students has dropped precipitously. This stems from a host of factors including iPhone addiction, helicopter parenting, participation trophies, and upbringings in which no-pain no-gain seems to have gone out of favor. The common refrain is, “Why should I learn it if I can just look it up?” The simple answer is that you need an operating system to think. Why is this being mentioned in a section on healthcare? Your future doctors may be surgically rooting around in your chest cavity like a truffle pig guided by YouTube videos. We return to related issues in the section on “College”, but I urge you to find doctors who are old enough to not be the iPhone Walking Dead. Let’s shoot back. Rumor has it Trump won the election, and Kennedy is being put in charge of Health and Human Services. There is no reason to doubt that he will be the most aggressive leader of that massive government organization in its history. At the next level down, the frontrunner to run the National Institutes of Health is Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford Medical School. He is a mild-mannered, very bright health policy expert who has developed new attitudes about the healthcare system as one of the three creators of the Great Barrington Declaration. ref 18 (For laughs, I looked at Wikipedia’s writeup on the Great Barrington Declaration, ref 19 and it is a complete sack of propaganda to push the authoritarian narrative that I have come to expect from that once revolutionary idea.) Both Kennedy and Bhattacharya have battled the Healthcare Balrog and emerged victorious. They could be revolutionary. While on the topic of eating organic food, brother-sister pair, Calley and Casey Means, appeared out of nowhere in a Tucker Carlson interview discussing decidedly unhealthy food and healthcare. ref 20 This was not by chance but rather the first salvo in the battle to Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) that is a major plank of the Trump administration. Ozempic, Wegovy, and other related anti-obesity drugs hit the ground running this year. The drug companies have restrictions on what they can advertise off-label, but they bypass the restrictions by exploiting famous Hollywood butterballs trying to become marketable again. We have created the ‘solution’ to treat the problem, without really being disciplined and empathetic enough to stop the creation of obese children in the first place. ref 21 ~ Dr. Lawrence Palevsky, pediatrician I am guessing that somewhere down the road we will discover huge side effects. You are treating the symptom not the disease. Bypassing the most overt phenotype arising from eating dogshit—Dunlop’s Syndrome in which your “belly done lops over your belt”—may not be healthy. And yet some health authorities, including the American Academy of Pediatrics, recommend it for teens, which will enable consequence-free Cheeto-Mountain Dew diets while they sit around staring into their iPhones. ref 22 Yay. That cannot be good, but I am expecting worse. Side effects include Anxiety, insomnia, and depression, all accompanied by a 45% rise in “suicide ideation.” ref 23 Muscle loss ref 24 seems to be causing “Ozempic Eyes” or “Ozempic Face” ref 25 in which you pick up that starving-POW look. When you are talking about the human biome, it is likely to be FAFO (fuck around find out.) At least your pall bearers will thank you. That BBC headline is spot on: death is the leading cause of not ageing. The profitability of a drug that must be taken for life causes spittle to drool down the chins of pharma CEOs. At $1000 per month without prescription coverage, Ozempic Wallet may become a thing. Euthanasia seems to be cool again. A depressed 28-year-old Dutch woman scheduled to be euthanized in May found happiness as the big day approached. ref 26 In Canada, its popularity has exceeded that of the ice bucket challenge. The CEO of United Health got assassinated by a pro. ref 27 Inscriptions on the bullet casings—“Deny, Depose, Defend”—suggested the company’s record of having the highest denial of coverage percentage in the business ref 28 left one critic a little grumpy and offered him complementary body piercings. This is a rapidly evolving story. The perpetrator has supposedly been identified, leaving the world mystified about why and even if he did it. ref 29 Note to the Elites: this is the shit that happens when the plebes feel like they have no civilized path forward. This is a Fourth Turning move. With especially poor timing, insurance company Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield announced that they would not cover the cost of anesthesia if the surgery took longer than a prescribed time. That policy was retracted fast , ref 30 presumably straight from the desk of the CEO trying to avoid the wireless hole puncher. I suspect that the announcement was already in the chamber to be fired out to the public when the United Health CEO got whacked. FAFO. The new shingles vaccine, Shingrix, was released in time to battle the shingles pandemic among the recently vaccinated. But they are provided for free! Yeah. Right. Government handouts mean you are paying. How broke will we be when all pharma products are free? That would have tremendous palliative benefits of reducing the diseased CPI. And since you have no idea what is in those devilish jabs, I should point out that Shingrix is an mRNA gene therapy. Are you going to jump on that bandwagon again and hope it doesn’t cause bleeding from every orifice? I’ll pass, thankyou very much. I’ve seen claims that healthcare is approaching 20% of US GDP. I have witnessed a huge spike in construction of healthcare facilities in my little college town of Ithaca. Economists love GDP, but let’s unwrap that. Would you be better off if you needed no healthcare whatsoever? Of course. Soaring boomer healthcare costs reflect the cost of keeping a rapidly depreciating fleet of aging Chevy Chevettes, Ford Pintos, and Corvairs on the road. And a headline from Bloomberg... Health and Human Services’s 2025 budget includes the keyword “equity” 829 times. Hundreds of billions are spent chasing the DEI bogey while your health falters. ref 31 And, by the way, why is DEI considered so profoundly important while tagging a hire as a DEI hire is verboten? Dear Kamala: the gold miners are gouging the price of gold. It’s up 10% per year under President Jill Biden. Can you please tell them to stop? Thanks. ref 1 ~ Zerohedge Gold had both a strong year (+30% ytd) and was not particularly newsworthy. Gold bugs always look forward to Ronald-Peter Stöferle’s and Mark J. Valek’s In Gold We Trust comprehensive treatise on the yellow metal and related topics. ref 2 I am not a technical analysis guy but the most highly respected technical analyst of gold, Mike Oliver, said gold would launch if it broke $2500. Although I would not call $2600 a launch, it held above that level to close the year at $2650 (as of 12/16/24) despite a sell-the-news $200+ swoon following the 2024 US elections. While some viewed the election sell-off to be about fundamentals, I think it was just an unwinding of a doom bet on election carnage (rioting, eating cats and dogs, shit like that). Despite detractors, gold is the #2 reserve currency below the dollar. Most are unaware that gold “IPO’d” in August 15, 1971, it has delivered a nearly 8% annualized return priced in dollars. The claim that gold is 5x gain relative to equities and bonds if that is a mean regressing proportionality. Remember that what follows this period of recessionary deflation will be MMT or some facsimile thereof. That is the ‘big bomb of debt’ monetization that ends up sending gold beyond a bull market towards a parabolic surge. ~ David “Rosie” Rosenberg A few nuggets are worthy of mention: Another wage-price spiral attributable to rising oil prices would be very reminiscent of the Great Inflation of the 1970s, when the price of gold soared. In this scenario, $3,500 per ounce would be a realistic target for gold through 2025. ~ Ed Yardeni (@yardeni) The most likely wildcard path to a gold price of $3,000/oz gold is a rapid acceleration of an existing but slow-moving trend: de-dollarization across “Emerging” markets central banks that in turn leads to a crisis of confidence in the U.S. #dollar...” ref 10 –Citigroup analysts Silver is schizophrenic in that it is less of a monetary metal than gold and much more of an industrial metal. As shown below, US traders smack it around, but that is just day trading. When powerful short sellers in the big banks get caught offsides on a big bet, the price will likely get stepped on temporarily. The silver bulls view silver as a leveraged play on gold, but will that be true going forward? A bullish argument is that Joe Sixpack gets more bang for the buck for silver—an ounce for $30. But that seems like a relevant rallying cry only in the final meme/mania phase, and this is no mania yet. The gold–silver ratio is said to have been 7:1 in ancient Rome and is now in the ballpark of 90:1. Some say that the 16:1 ratio in the Earth’s crust is the target for mean regression, but that is probably too simplistic given the complexities of the mining industry. Doomberg warns that there are no big advances in battery technology, and the incremental advances are all in large companies. He urges you to never invest in a story stock promising a breakthrough. Silver’s importance in the Samsung’s newest rechargeable batteries does seem encouraging. The importance of silver in solar panels and the difficulties in recycling them makes silver a good bet should the climate cult continue to help the climate grifters who, in turn, are playing into the hands of the authoritarians. That every electronic device on the planet uses largely non-recyclable silver should drive demand for silver. ref 13 One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do...I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up... I wait for a situation that is like the proverbial ‘shooting fish in a barrel.’ ~ Jim Rogers, in Market Wizards Let’s begin with savings. I think you save for retirement whereas you invest to fight inflation. Four decades ago (1981), I was a cash-poor new homeowner. I began furnishing it from yard sales but eventually progressed to 18th and 19th century American antiques. They were in a bull market as boomers began homesteading and caught the country bug in large numbers. I now live with really nice furniture that may not be worth what I paid but has not followed IKEA crap off the depreciation cliff. I was doing OK in these formative years including steady flows into retirement accounts, but one day I was reading a USAir magazine story that asked rhetorically, “Are you saving enough for retirement?” I realized I could do better and followed their suggestion to increase the rate of savings incrementally. For many years now I have sheltered 25–30% of my gross salary into retirement. This was true even during the kids’ college years. Last year, for example, I socked away 25% despite purchasing a new SUV for my wife and some aggressive distributions to the next generation. Well, this year, owing to wrapping up my research program, the 25% of my salary deriving from Federal grants evaporated, and my savings dropped to 4%. Technically speaking, I lived paycheck-to-paycheck. I also realized, however, that next year I turn 70 and will get nearly $60,000 per year salary boost from Social Security, which was good timing. I am, however, pondering retirement so that I can go to my office everyday as usual but work for free. Raising children is an enormously expensive endeavor. ~ Malcolm Gladwell My son, a professional violinist, went on a 6-week whirlwind tour of Europe shopping for a new violin. He found nothing of interest until, on nearly the last day, this 1725 Carlo Antonio Testore came across the auction block at Tarisio, and, with 100% funding by the Bank of Dad (BoD), he grabbed it. This six-digit purchase (with all six to the left of the decimal point) is owned by the BoD; he will inherit it. Was it a good buy? I think so. The kid has a good head, keen eye, and fabulous ear. I do not include this violin in my personal savings calculations; it is a hard asset. The mid-19th-century dining room table with the stunning tiger maple on which the Testore resides cost $700. That was a good buy too. An interesting aside, a 1714 Stradivarius is about to cross Sotheby’s auction block at an estimated World-record-beating $12–18 million. ref 1 (Of course, the very best are owned by institutions and will never hit the auction block.) To recap my 45-year investment history, I was 100 percent long-bonds via TIAA from 1980–1987 until a discussion with a colleague in the wake of the ’87 crash convinced me I should hit the equities hard. I averaged in , but did so aggressively, and became wildly enthusiastic about tech by the early ‘90s. I was a poster child for the bubble. However, I had learned enough about markets to conclude that something was wrong. In July of 1998 I jettisoned half of my CREF-based index funds and watched the market tank into the Asian Flu. Feeling half genius and half moron, I was determined to get the second half out if the market rallied back. It did, and I was out of indexes by early ’99 and had tight stops on tech favorites as well as a handful of other real winners. They were all gone by mid ’99, pocketing 700% each on Worldcom and Dell, for example. (I never bought a dot-com.) Without a single share of an equity, I paid off the tail-end of my mortgage (debt-free ever since) and went long gold (cost basis 10% of My Net Worth Positions 1.0–10% of My Net Worth Positions 0.10–1.0% of My Net Worth Positions 50%). The bottom is in when the Fed stops dropping rates. The Fed started dropping rates in March 16th, 2024. Let the games begin. I hasten to add that these correlations of rates and returns don’t necessarily indicate causation. The greatest credit event of all would be a recession in which US yields went up, not down. ~ Michael Hartnett By the end, we’re 40 times leveraged with 0.1% growth to get what looks like 4% growth...find me an economist who can tell me what the real unleveraged growth of America is, and people will have an epileptic fit even thinking about it because it’s teeny. ~ David Murrin I am getting increasingly concerned that we have to endure another decline of 5 percent or more before the year is out. ref 33 ~ Sam Stovall, CFRA Research’s chief investment strategist, way over his skis I feel like a lot of what’s perceived as wealth is an inflation illusion. ~ Stephanie Pomboy The Magnificent Seven. The Mag 7—Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook), Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—are the modern-day Nifty Fifty of 1967 or the 14 Japanese companies rounding out the top 20 companies in the world in 1989. Both offered up spectacular gains, culminating in catastrophic prospective losses. Sometimes the ten largest are discussed, but they lack the catchy name recognition. The Mag 7 are collectively overpriced, moreso than when I launched a diatribe against them in 2022, gloating about their recent beatings only to watch them humiliate me. ref 37 Nvidia (NVDA) has become the market and will be the focus of my scorn. Before projectile vomiting my sour Nvidia grapes, I want to share a few random bullets about the collective Mag 7 and the other players in the Mag 7—the Mag 6—that caught my attention. The only thing less valuable than Tesla stock is a fully grown adult at P. Diddy’s house. ref 38 ~ Lewis Black If you think Silicon Valley knows what it’s doing financially, you really have to rethink things. ~ Jim Chanos, Kynikos Apple’s index representation is set to increase after Buffett’s sale fully unleashed the amount of stock available for trading. In turn, index-tracking funds will need to purchase the shares to mimic its growing heft. ref 43 ~ Bloomberg, failing to understand the definition of “float” ref 44 Nvidia (NVDA) is the poster child of the New Era. I have seen cats chase laser pointers with less enthusiasm. I suspect NVDA and its CEO will be pictured on milk cartons when the next big whoosh lays waste to the indices. Some hang the Ponzi moniker on NVDA owing to massive valuations (50x revenues), shady dealings with Coreweave, and a CEO with bad press from past shenanigans. ~Me, 2023 YIR Nvidia. While nuclear-powered AI is said by some to be the greatest thing since the internet, profits from AI seem to not be materializing. The big players could spend huge bucks just to keep up with each other. Google is at risk of its invader-proof moat drying up. If the generations of technology roll over faster than the R&D can be amortized, AI companies could suffer death by creative destruction. ref 46 Meanwhile, the pick and shovel maker Nvidia has become the first $3 trillion company with a capacity to gain or lose hundreds of billions of dollars in a single day. They added more than the equivalent of Goldman Sachs in one night. Nvidia has become the technology market. To get to a [pre-10:1-share-split] $740 share price simply requires NVDA to maintain a monopolist-like operating profit margin of 55% for the next decade, while also growing sales 10x to more than $600bn. For context, the entire industry sold $527bn worth of chips last year. ~ Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) not knowing that the price would soon double The U.S. Supreme Court will hear Nvidia’s appeal of a court ruling that accuses the company of committing securities fraud. ref 60 ~ Bezinga Headline NVDA investors won’t want to read (and apparently didn’t) Nvidia gets subpoena from US DoJ, Bloomberg News reports –Reuters, another headline NVDA investors didn’t read Nvidia has been a high-wire act for some time. ref 64 ~ Marc Cohodes, 2002 There are a number of people who could have put Jensen in jail. ref 65 ~ Marc Cohodes, 2024, quoting a source I think it is the biggest bubble I’ve ever seen. Nvidia is up $1 trillion in one month. ~ Fred Hickey, The High-Tech Strategist Nvidia is highly unlikely to be a long-term winner as the demand for picks and shovels occurs at the beginning of a gold rush, and then rapidly fades. ref 69 ~ Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research So there you have it. Nvidia is the market. It has offered investors >170% one-year return and a 2400% five-year return. Will their 80% profit margins and valuations at >40x revenue and 100x levered-free cash flow hold up over time? During the dot-com bust Nvidia swan dived 90%. Could the drop be bigger this time? I said yes, ref 70 but what do I know? Here is the bullish case that says they just keep going up. ref 71 AI will likely be transformative and highly profitable, but probably to those who can buy the body parts at a deep discount after a period of carnage. Nvidia provides the infrastructure—the pipes—for AI. Corning provided the infrastructure—the light pipes—for the telecom sector and internet. I have a few questions. Will history refer to the “Magnificent Seven” as a success story or will they become the “Malignant 7” and join the Nifty Fifty and Dotcoms in the Hall of Shame? That I need not even define “Mag Seven” for the reader is a tell. The Yahoo Finance page has a picture of Jensen Huang every...single...day. He has been on countless magazine covers. This seems like the magazine cover jinx that is now an infamous top call, but—and this is Kim Kardashian-sized but—Jensen has not yet been on The Economist . However, as they said in Starwars, there is another... Market Bullets. Before my final wrap up, let’s peek at a couple of funny stories of the type that emerge before the proverbial tide recedes. Chewy surges after ‘Roaring Kitty’ discloses stake. ~ Yahoo Finance Headline When a stock surges 90% because of the “Return of Roaring Kitty”, you know we are currently living in one of the most speculative environments in history. ~ Otavio Costa By the way, what does a whale that can move markets by simply spouting out his blowhole actually look like? This is Roaring Kitty. Are you not entertained now? The Game is indeed nearly over. In conclusion, we are witnessing the great cycle of life. As the markets pull out of some secular low and climb the wall of worry, credit loosens, entrepreneurs begin taking baby steps at creating new wealth, eventually reaching a climax—a blow-off top. Prior to the collapse, the smart guys will have already snuck out the back door to safe havens, leaving the risk in pension plans run by Hillbillies. As the collapse wreaks havoc and crushes the nouveau poor, the “elites” will foreclose on the malinvestment and confiscate the portions of the wealth that survive the washout for pennies on the dollar. Who bought the real estate that went on the auction block in 08–09? Not you or me. Après le deluge, the cycle starts all over again. A 1994 paper by Romer and Akerloff described the great wealth transfer of the boom-bust cycle. I’ve saved my really big concern for last. We appear to be in yet another investment mania. Wall Street guys call it a “blow-off top”, which is coded language for getting you to keep putting your money in through fear that you will miss the best part—the Grand Finale. Lincoln made that mistake too. Yet, somehow, nobody seems euphoric. The Roaring 20s got their name for a reason. The dot-com boom felt like we had catapulted into the future. The housing mania that drove the markets to the ’07 top was euphoric as nouveau homeowners thought Oprah would be giving everybody a house and a pony. During this latest high, by contrast, the Left Half think their lives are over because the Orange Man won. The Right Half voted for the radical reform because they have had enough of the Left Half. The Bottom Half are working two jobs to pay their bills because of the surging cost of living. The Top Half will do anything to avoid returning to the Bottom Half (including selling into a panic). Politicians are despised, the mainstream media is hated, and the healthcare profession killed people. Universities are viewed as neo-Marxist training camps and too damned expensive. It feels like a mix of 1860 USA and 1789 France. Here is the Really Big Question: If everybody is so grumpy at the top, what the hell is the next recession and accompanying bottom going to look like? There is not the slightest indication that [nuclear energy] will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will. ~ Albert Einstein, 1932. To state the obvious, energy runs the world. The entire growth of civilization is about harnessing enthalpy (heat) to overcome entropy (chaos). Without the constant input of enthalpy, civilization will decay into a state of maximum entropy, and Bartertown may be our best-case scenario. Beginning with The Quest for Fire , every major advance in cultural evolution demanded increasing energy efficiency from trees, peat bogs, whale blubber, coal, oil, natural gas, and the atom. I am convinced that anthropogenic climate change is a load of anthropogenic crap brought to us by tens of trillions of dollars of anthropogenic grift and global authoritarianism. I have run out of patience with policymakers, corporate decision-makers, and investors who collectively throw up their hands and say, ‘Don’t blame me.’ There is no excuse to fall for the myth of being victimized by the unprecedented. –Stephen Roach in Myth of the Unprecedented Here is where I cut the psychopaths some slack: maybe they are in a position to see that changes are coming and, to quote a famous former governor, “Fuck your freedoms.” The Club of Rome was not nuts asserting exponential growth on a finite orb is arithmetic nonsense as brilliantly described in talks by Albert Bartlett. ref 1 The obvious and final play is nuclear. Perceived risk is amplified by the vivid imagery of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima setbacks; there were no fatalities at the former two, and an estimated 31 died in the immediate aftermath of Chernobyl. By contrast, wind turbines kill several dozen people per year. My interest in energy and electric vehicles is a combination of curiosity, investment opportunity, and tracking the twisted globalists’ quest for global domination. There are plenty of energy experts; I find the pseudonymous Doomberg to be a fabulous source of grounded wisdom. ref 2 The energy transition is failing and will fail. ref 3 ~ Barry Norris, the founder and chief investment officer of UK hedge fund Argonaut Capital Partners LLP Electric Vehicles. The electric vehicles (EVs) came on too fast. You cannot legislate solutions to technical problems. The EV market appears to be heading for a shakeout that is not just about a bursting bubble on Wall Street. It is bullet time: Something super weird is going on, as Tesla was the *only* car company attacked! ref 11 ~ Elon Musk on the German attacks on Giga factory The investment community’s belief that EVs will displace the internal combustion engine remains as strong as ever. We vigorously disagree... Despite claims to the contrary, our research suggests EVs are less energy efficient than internal combustion engine automobiles. As a result, they will fail to gain widespread adoption. ref 15 ~ Goehring & Rozencwajg Electric vehicles (EVs) are piling up on lots across the country as the green revolution hits a speed bump, data show. ref 18 ~ USA Today, November 14, 2023 The road to electrification could be bumpier than anticipated. ~ Stephen Scherr, Hertz CEO...oops...ex-CEO The Twittersphere pointed out that Volkswagen was run by Nazis. She deleted her Twitter account. Well, hells bells. Let’s get more government in the game... I have a particular fondness, I must tell you, for electric school buses. I love electric school buses! I just love them for so many reasons! Maybe because I went to school on a school bus. Hey, raise your hand if you went to school on a school bus! ~ Kamala Harris, former future President The bottom line seems to be that EVs cost way more than ICEs to buy, finance, insure, and repair. They hold value like bananas left on the countertop. You can’t refuel them in two minutes. They can catch fire, rip through tires because of the excessive weight, get written down near zero after a fender bender because the integrity of the battery is unknowable, experience software crashes worse than Windows 95, witness precipitous drop in miles per charge in cold weather, strain the grid, and bankrupt rental agencies because of all of the above. ref 34 Otherwise, they’re great! That leads to the ultimate question: where will we get all the green energy to power all those green cars? The nation that destroys its soil destroys itself. ~ President Franklin D. Roosevelt Biomass-Derived Energy. I’ve written about biomass before. its problems were vividly laid bare by, of all people, Michael Moore in his Planet of the Humans documentary. ref 35 Destroying the World’s arable soils so that you can drive your car is insane. Of course, the corn lobby will keep the ethanol subsidies coming much the way wool subsidies refuse to die. Otherwise, I sense the idea has already died on the vine. We built a heck of a lot of wind capacity in 2023 in the United States, but the actual amount of wind electricity produced went down simply because you have wind droughts. ref 36 ~ Dan Kish, energy economist, Institute for Energy Research (IER) Wind Turbines. Wind is close behind. Construction and disposal of wind turbines are environmentally brutal. The ornithologists detest the deaths of migratory birds while missing the possible benefits of catching them with nets to make raptor stews. Turbines turn pristine landscapes into eyesores. I used to fish off Wolf Island in the Saint Lawrence River. It is now a big wind farm. Next time you drive by a windfarm, count how many turbines are not turning. Wind turbines seem likely to follow biomass into the dustbin of history. If you want an interesting takedown, listen to this 4-minute riff on wind turbines in the show Landman . ref 37 Let’s shoot them with a few bullets anyway. Solar Power. Cradle-to-grave analyses of the efficacy of alternative energies require a detailed investigation of the overall cost, resource depletion, net energy cost after the consumption of fossil fuels have been accounted for, and all of the above when it comes time for the grave. Analyses by many including David MacKay, ref 43 , 44 , 45 whose work came highly recommended by energy security analyst Iddo Wernick, ref 46 have convinced me alternative “green” energies cannot replace fossil fuels. The incentives for those in the alternative energy industry to carry out such detailed analyses is akin to the incentives of Pfizer to find all the flaws in their drugs and vaccines. The problem of solar panel disposal will explode with full force in two or three decades and wreck the environment because it is a huge amount of waste and they are not easy to recycle. ref 47 ~ Forbes Hundreds of millions of solar panels are in service; most have a lifespan of under 30 years. Each year, their electric output drops by at least half a percent, and given enough time they must be replaced. Best I can tell, nobody has figured out how to solve the “intractable problem of hazardous waste disposal” ref 48 once the solar panels have gone to the light. I am by no means an expert, but this serves as a warning to eco-bliss-ninnies who embrace alternative energies without much thought. Developers who pocketed huge profits and are arguably responsible for them cradle-to-grave will be long gone when that grave part arrives. I am just topping off years of casual reading about energy, admittedly accruing wisdom incrementally: As Europe and the rest of the World get pounded by energy shortages, people may soon be begging for nuclear power plants in their backyards — NIMBY turns RIMBY (right in my backyard). ~ Dave Collum, 2023, cited In Gold We Trust Nuclear Energy. I have been confident for awhile now that nuclear power was going to return. It must return. The bombing of the Nordstream pipeline struck me as a trigger. Freezing a few asses off in a chilly Northern European winter would have the Germans begging for a plant in their backyards. That didn’t happen, but there emerged an urgent push for nuclear energy that came with little warning inside the Trojan Horse of AI. Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter. ~ Lewis L. Strauss, chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission Chips used for AI suck up 5–10x more power than standard CPU systems. ref 58 I call it a Trojan Horse because I believe the enthusiasm for AI is not just putting pressure to find better sources of energy. AI is being used to generate the “buzz” to get sign-off by the public on nuclear energy. I can imagine a future in which Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are the largest components in the XLE energy index. All the cool kids like Gates, Fink, Jensen, and Altman are on the bandwagon. Moreover, the timescales often cited are in years not decades. Something has changed. The big money is all in, which means nuclear energy is surging. I am playing catchup here, but the “next gen” or “second gen” small modular reactors (SMRs) can be mass produced. Our nuclear sub fleet illustrates the basic idea. Cost estimates are all over the map, but the wild variations appear to trace to regulatory uncertainties, which can be bulldozed if the mood is right. Energy whiz Doomberg did a back-of-the-envelope calculation showing that the footprint of a traditional reactor is
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